Coronavirus: Way forward for Agricultural Commodities Market in India

Year 2020 has so far been a painful year for entire world in terms of loss to human life and economic loss to the countries due to Pandemic COVID-19. Every human is scared of the Coronavirus these days.

On the one hand, science is struggling to find a solution to contain the Pandemic Covid-19, on the other a large number of Economies are incurring huge losses due to lockdown as movement is restricted and only essential services are allowed to operate.

Financial Markets across the globe have seen a sharp correction due to increased risk under prevailing uncertain environment.

There are a lot of pessimism with regard to the Economic growth at the global level as there is fear of recession.  We believe that the recovery in global markets would vary from country to country depending upon the severity effect of the COVID-19. The policy measure taken by the various government will decide the growth trajectory of their countries.

India: Way Forward for Agricultural Commodities Sector

Fortunately, Indian is largely a consumer economy. How demand will improve and what steps Indian government takes to create and sustain demand in near future will guide the market sentiments and country’s growth story.

As on March 07, 2020, so far the loss to human life and number of case of Corona virus patients is not too much alarming India is successfully managing the situation.

India fortunately is having abundant food grains in its stock. Thus, it is not worried about the food inflation as of now. New Rabi season crop is ready to be harvested however due to lock down, the harvesting process is delayed.

Government is making every effort that Agri Markets (Mandis) are to be allowed to operate smoothly so that farmers produce starts available for sale to the bulk buyers keeping all the precautionary steps of maintain social distancing. Currently harvesting of big crops like Wheat, Chickpea (Gram/Chana) and Mustard seed is underway apart from other crops.

Unavailability of Agricultural Labour for harvesting and market operations due to its migration to their native places during Lockdown period remains a big challenge for the government.

Logistics and Transport related problems are also there as the Machineries required for the harvesting are stuck at places and it will take them time to reach at the required places.

Each day crores of rupees are required to purchase bulk agri commodities which arrives in the agri markets i.e. Mandis. It is to be seen how bulk buyers manage to arrange this huge amount of money to purchase the crop produce under uncertain economic environment. At the same time, how lending institutions are willing to provide them credit facility.

Thus, maintaining flow of money would remain a challenge under current situation. If adequate credit facility is not provided, the impact may be seen on the farm prices as Government procurement quantity remains limited.

Demand Prospects:

Early trend in the export of the Indian agricultural commodities like Pulses, Spices, dairy products, oil meals, poultry products and Rice have shown declining trend (Jan 20 over Dec 19). Under current scenario, it seems that Feb and March data might also be discouraging on export front.  The short term domestic demand has also curtailed.

However, we believe that while expenditure on non-essential items might remain restricted in short to medium term by the consumers, the food demand would continue to remain there. Rather, it will increase in time to come.

Thus, increased food item demand will continue to support the agricultural and allied sector even in the pessimistic scenario of the other sector in India.

Internet based services and sectors are the sectors which are comparatively less affected due to Lockdown. Paralysis in the economic activities due to Lockdown clearly reflect that this is high time to make sea changes in the Indian Agricultural sector and make most of the services available through e-based platform be it procurement/warehousing/selling/buying etc.

However, India started e-NAM (electronic- National Agricultural Market) few years for making procurement based activities through online platform. Although, it is yet to become more popular among the farmers and traders. Similarly warehouse based sales and other operations are yet to gather attention by the market participants.

It is suggested that whole agricultural value chain operations should be made ON-LINE to make it more effective to address the unprecedented and unpredictable challenges like Pandemic Covid-19.

Update 1: Rapeseed-Mustard Crop Production and Price Outlook in India for 2016

On 24 Jan 2016, we expressed our views on likely scenario of Indian Rapeseed Mustard production and prices in the light of weather disturbance and sown area progress  under the article with the name “Recent Weather Fluctuations can trim India’s Rapeseed-Mustard Production and spark the prices during 2016”. The link of the article was given below http://prasoonmathur.blogspot.in/2016/01/recent-weather-fluctuations-can-trim.html)

Since then, there is marked increment in the reports of sown area under this crop. Thus we provide below the updated information on the same and consequently we also revise our production estimates. The likely price scenario is also modified little bit accordingly.

Latest Sowing Progress of Oilseeds in India

The sown area under Rapeseed-Mustard has increased to 64.51 lakh ha as on 27^th Jan 2016 as against the 65.17 lakh ha area which was sown during year 2014-15.

Thus the sown area is now just 1% below from the last year’s figure on All India basis. However, the sown area is lagging behind by 3.64% in Rajasthan which is the leading state in terms of Area and Production of Rapeseed-Mustard in India.

The Table given below has been extracted from SEA of India website.

Pest & Diseases Scenario:

Due to changes in Temperature and other weather related conditions, the advisories have been issued to state Governments and CIPMCs for continuous monitoring of Yellow Rust diseases on Wheat crop in wheat growing areas of Haryana, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh along with the monitoring of Aphids and White rust on Mustard growing areas on mustard crop.

· Incidence of white rust in mustard crop has been reported in trace to low intensity in few villages of Sriganganagar district of Rajasthan; Anand, Kheda, Baroda, Ahemadabad, Mehsana districts of Gujarat and south district of Sikkim.

Source: Crop Weather Watch Group, MoA, India, dated 25 Jan 2016.

Production Assessment:

Thus based upon the above mentioned facts and figures, we provide below the revised production estimates for the Rapeseed-Mustard crop in India for the year 2016.

These estimates can further be revised depending upon the coming weather and crop progress reports.  

Thus, due to increment in the sown area as compared to the previous report dated 24 Jan 2016, we revise upward the Rapeseed-Mustard production estimate to 54 lakh tons for year 2016.  However, this production figure is down by around 6% from the previous year figure of 57.4 lakh tons of the Oilseeds Industry estimates (Please note that the Government estimates may differ).

Long Term Price Outlook of Rapeseed-Mustard for the Year 2016

Currently Prices of Rapeseed-Mustard (RMseed) in the Indian Commodities Market are hovering around Rs. 3900/quintals.

We have a BULLISH OUTLOOK for RMSEED for the Year 2016.

However, since some upward revision in the production estimates is made, the downside risk in the price levels may be seen in the range of 3550-3650 during Feb/March period which is the main arrival period.

The ideal strategy would be to ENTER the market at RIGHT TIME.

 Judging the right price of entry seems difficult.

Ideal Buying Period/Time in the Market:

We would prefer to start buying from February First week. Then gradually make averages on weekly basis till March first week or whenever price decline in the range of 3, 6 and 8 % is seen from the first buying level of Feb first week.

The long term upward Target seems near Rs. 5300/qtl during Oct 16 to December 16 period.

(Substantial reserve capital must be kept to meet out the MTM in the volatile market and avoid over leveraging)

Recent Weather Fluctuations can trim India’s Rapeseed-Mustard Production and spark the prices during 2016

Recent fluctuation in the temperature in many parts of North and Central India has worried the farmers as well as traders as it has lasted some unfavorable impact on some of the standing Rabi crops.

Here we analyze the likely impact on Rapeseed-Mustard as this crop is vulnerable to these fluctuations.

A.          Impact of High Temperature:

Possibility of Yield Reduction:

Above normal temperature seen during first fortnight of the January proved harmful in those areas where early/timely sowing of the crop was done and the pods were in the filling stage. Due to sudden rise in temperature, the maturing process started early which may result into lesser yield and lesser oil content.

Major Rapeseed producing state “Rajasthan” falls under this category. Above normal by 4 to 6^oC over many parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Marathwada, Vidarbha, isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka during the week 31st December, 2015 to 06th January, 2016.

B.           Impact of Sudden Drop in Temperature:

Possibility of Aphid Attach:

Now for the last couple of days the average temperature has come down considerably and severe cold wave is prevailing in many parts of the country.

Sudden drop in temperature along with fog invite the aphid attack on the Mustard crop. Thus the plains of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana are more prone to the aphid attack. The possibility of aphid attack can’t be ruled out in these areas. The aphid suck the grain inside the pod. If timely chemical treatment is not done, then the yield may reduce substantially.

Possibility of damage to the crop due to frost also remains there during this period.

C.         Impact of Lesser Rains in North-Western India

Although Rapeseed - Mustard is a less water intensive crop but still slight rainfall or at least two light irrigations are required during the whole crop cycle.

In Majority of its growing states there is no rainfall till date. However in some parts of the MP some rains were seen during last week.

Map Source: IMD, India

D.          Impact of Hailstorm and heavy rains:

Any spell of excessive rains if seen during Feb/March localized or on vast part of a certain region may prove again dangerous to the standing crop as it may cause root rooting. Further, pod shattering may also result in to yield loss.

Further, hailstorm if seen in some patches may reduce the yield drastically of that particular area.

Now if light rains are seen during Feb/March, then it will be beneficial for the late sown varieties of the crop particularly in the Uttar Pradesh region.

However it is observed that during Feb/March almost every year Hailstorm and rain with high wind velocity is seen at isolated places in many parts of the country.

However, till date no such incidence is reported.

Production Assessment in the light of Recent Weather Fluctuations and Less Sown area:

It seems from the above analysis that there are chances of some yield reduction due to above mentioned reasons. The extent may vary from region to region. In certain areas the impact may be more visible while in other areas it may be negligible.

Rajasthan which is a major Rapeseed growing areas, the impact of sudden rise in temperature may be substantial on the yield. Further rains are also not seen in vast part of its growing regions. MP, Haryana, Western UP and Punjab may also witness some downfall in the yield.

As can be seen from the Table 1 that as on 12 Jan 2016, the sown area under Rapeseed and mustard is reported to be 62.76 lakh hectare which is also 3 lakh hectare less as compared to the last year.

Thus, the cumulative impact of less sown area and weather disturbance may reflect into lesser production this year. We expect that this year India may witness Mustard crop production somewhere near 52 lakh tons as compared to the last year’s figure i.e. 57.4 lakh tons which translates into 9% reduction in the production from the previous year.

Thus this year the production may remain lowest in the last six years. 

Price Outlook of Rapeseed-Mustard in Indian Market for 2016

This year the Rapeseed-Mustard (RMSeed) market is likely to remain bullish due to expectation of low crop production.

All the RMseed is consumed in domestic market and we are least affected of the international market sentiments in case of RMseed.  In the light of falling crude oil prices and high edible oil imports in the country, some short term decline may be seen in the prices but the overall long term outlook seems bullish.

The impact would be visible in the upcoming season. Usually the fresh crop arrival starts from late February in some parts of the country.

We expect that prices will start moving upward from February first week. On NCDEX the level of 3900-4000 can be a good buying level from long term point of view.

In Soybean: Don’t follow World Market when You Trade in India

During last few years, Indian oilseeds trading community has seen high volatility in prices while the world market trend remained more or less steady in one direction. Those who believe that it is the CBOT that dictate the market sentiments in many commodities went wrong in case of soybean when it comes to trade in India.

On the one hand where since last four years, the soybean Prices at Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) have seen continuous fall to the extent of 40% till this December, Indian soybean market has gained around 14%.

Figure 1 shows the change in production and prices in the Indian and world market. Since 2011-12 to 2014-15, the soybean production fell by around 14% in India resulting into continuous prices rise to the extent of around 14% during same period.

On the other hand the soybean production at world level has seen significant jump of around 33% during last 4 years resulting in to 40%  fall in its price.

Thus we have seen a complete divergence in the production and price behaviour of soybean in  India from the world market.

We try to identify and explain why Indian soybean prices remained immune to the world market sentiments. Let us have a look at Table 1.

Some Observations from Table 1:

1. The soybean production keeps on falling for the straight 4th year. A production fall of 14% is seen in the last 4 years.This year (2015-16) too the production is likely to go down significantly. 
2. Due to fall in the production, domestic soybean oil production has also come down by around 19%.
3. Soybean meal exports to the various countries have fallen dramatically by around 83% in the previous 4 years. Year 2014-15 has proved to be a nightmare for the oilmeal export industry.
4. Soybean oil imports to the India have increased by 173% during same period.
5. World soybean production continued uptrend resulting into steady and consistent price fall in the world market. During last four years, the world soybean production rose by 33% while soybean prices fell by around 40%.

Thus, it is clear from the above facts, that despite bearish world market sentiments, Indian soybean market remained firm and in future too, overall sentiments are likely to remain positive with some intermittent fall owing to various other reasons excluding demand and supply.

In the Year 2015-16, the Indian soybean Industry experts feel that production may further decline and may remain near 87 lakh tons as against 91.7 lakh tons seen during 2014-15. Thus continuous shortfall in the production amidst increased domestic demand of soyoil and soymeal with continue to provide support to the soybean prices in India in medium term.

India impose very high import duty on oilseeds and oilcake (oilmeal) import into India to safeguard its own domestic industry. Currently the effective import duty on oilseeds and oilcake is 36.55 and 20.80% respectively in India.

Soybean is a rainfed crop grown in the Kharif season in India. Thus production fluctuates widely due to change in monsoon rainfall quantum and it's spatio-temporal distribution. Further the growing domestic demand by various industries like animal feed and FMCG companies keeps on supporting the prices of soybean in India.

Due to high domestic prices, the soybean processing Industry in India is passing through very tough time due to high disparity owing to high raw material cost. The Indian Industry has started loosing its export markets resulting into drastic decline in to soymeal export figures. The capacity utilization is at the lowest and many plants are close down or operating at very low capacity due to disparity in crushing and export.

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, in its press releases cites following main reasons of drastic fall in the soybean meal by India.  

1. High price of soybean in domestic market v/s lower realization for meal and oil resulted into drastic fall in crushing and export of soybean meal.

2. The export to Japan, Iran, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and Vietnam drastically reduced due to disparity in export in these regions against severe competition from other origins including China and Argentina.

3. India lost Vietnam market for soybean meal due to stiff competition from other origins and increased availability from domestic crushing of imported soybean.

4. On wake of lifting sanctions, Iran shifted soybean meal buying from India to another origins. Currently India is out priced by US$ 100 against other origins in Iranian market.

5. Japan was big importer of Indian soybean meal being non GMO, however now started using GM soybean meal and buying from other origins.

On the edible oil import front, India’s import is increasing day by day as globally the prices of edible oil are historically low since 2008, and had affected the domestic players. The domestic oilseeds prices are high and the imports are quite cheap due to less import duty on the edible oils.

Lessons:

1. Very low domestic production leads to excessively higher prices in soybean; no matter world market is falling.
2. Domestic demand will grow day by day. Thus, till we don’t increase production or start importing soybean, the domestic prices are hard to come down significantly in long to medium term.
3. Soybean meal export and domestic edible oil manufacturing industry may come into severe crisis if steps are not taken to improve domestic supply of soybean in a planned way.
4. Soon, India may become net importer of soybean as well as soymeal and other meals if oilseeds production problems are not addressed adequately.
5. Soybean prices are still rising in India, despite the fact that world markets are having ample supplies. Just imagine what will happen if some point of time world’s soybean production decline in any year. Prices will shoot like anything.

Thus, while trading in Indian soybean market, just have a look at it's own fundamental factors rather than blindly following world market sentiments otherwise possibility of going wrong is very high because INDIA DOES NOT FOLLOW WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE SOYBEAN.

Fear and Greed Push Soybean Prices in India

It is amazing to see the soybean market movement in the Indian physical and futures market during last 15 days. The futures and physical market prices during last fortnight have increased by around 22 and 14 % respectively in India.

As per the Indian government estimates, the soybean production during 2014-15 is estimated to remain at 10.53 million tons as compared to 11.86 million tons during 2013-14, down by around 11.21%. However, the trade sources say that the production is far less than the government estimates due to deficit monsoon this year.

Usually, soybean fresh crop arrival starts in the first week of October in the India’s biggest soybean producing state i.e. Madhya Pradesh and prices usually remain low during first fortnight of the October month. Thereafter they start increasing due to reduced arrivals and increased demand.

This year, many parts of the country including parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra witnessed early monsoon rains thus sowing was also done a little bit early consequently the market was expecting considerable increase in the fresh crop arrivals during last fortnight of September and early October.

Sharp Decline in Market Arrival leads to Spark in Prices

Let us examine why prices have seen such a significant jump in prices in a very short span of time.

The market arrivals and prices in the three major soybean producing regions of the Madhya Pradesh namely Indore, Ujjain and Dewas are examined and the answer is quite clear. [the data were taken from http://agmarknet.nic.in/]

In Indore region the soybean arrivals during 1-8 October have declined by around 10% as compared to the period of 24-30 September. This extent of arrival decline varies between 35 to 47% in few mandis.

The soybean market arrivals in the Ujjain region have declined drastically by 48.68 % during 1-8 October as compared to the 24-30 September.  The extent of this decline was as high as 85% in Mahidpur mandi.

However, in Dewas region, the soybean arrivals have seen considerable increment in many mandis. However Dewas mandi has seen slight decline in market arrivals.

Impact of Less Arrivals

Due to sudden and significant decline in the fresh crop arrivals, a panic buying by the traders and stockiest is seen in the market. This has led to a jump in the soybean prices in the physical market.

The immediate impact is seen in the futures market too where the hedgers and speculators both are believed to have built good quantity of buying positions in anticipation of further rise in prices due to less arrivals.

Thus GREED of the suppliers of the soybean by reducing supply in anticipation of further price rise and FEAR of the price rise by the actual consumers have suddenly spurt the prices of soybean in such a short span of time. The speculators have further aggravated the situation.

However, the current market situation is quite unsustainable, and market forces of demand and supply with sooner or later adjust the prices which will be sustainable in long run. 

Currently market is trading in overbought region and possibility of sudden price fall can’t be overruled.

A cautious trade is advised.

A study on seasonality in Imports of Soyoil. Will prices further fall in India till October 2015?

How soybean oil market is likely to behave in India in near future? What is the current soybean sowing progress? What is the current supply situation of soy oil? What has been remained the pattern of imports in India during a marketing season? What has been the import price behavior during various months of a marketing season? What is the current supply and demand scenario of the world soy oil market? The current study tries to find out the answers of the above questions on the basis of some empirical analysis.

New edible oil marketing season starts every year from November and end in October. There are still 3 months to start of new season.

We would examine how prices are likely to behave till then.

A.     Latest Sowing Progress of Kharif oilseeds crops in India.

As per the latest Indian government estimates, the total sown area under kharif oilseeds as on 31^st July is 148.52 lakh ha. Area coverage is higher by 15.7 lakh ha. under Soybean from the normal sown area as on 31^st July. Soybean is sown at 104.81 lakh ha as compared to 89.10 lakh ha normal sown area.

In the monsoon season, cumulative Rainfall for the country as a whole during the period 1st June to 22nd July, 2015 was 7% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall (% departure from LPA) in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period was higher by 6% in North West India and lower by 6% in East & North East India, 13% in Central India and 12% in South Peninsula.

The monsoon deficiency is more in the east MP and Maharashtra regions of India which may create problem to the soybean crop if rains do not cover up during August month.

As of now situation seems under control so far as soybean crop is concerned.

B.    Stock Position at Port and in Pipelines :

As per the statistics released by SEA of India-

• Current stock of edible oils as on 1st July, 2015 at various ports is estimated at 610,000 tons (CPO 300,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 90,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 80,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 125,000 tons and 15,000 tons of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil and about 1,570,000 tons in pipelines.
• India’s monthly requirement is about 16.0 lakh tons against which currently holding stock over 21.80 lakh tons equal to 41 days requirements.

Thus the current stocks are ample to meet the near future demand of the country. The import is likely to improve in this quarter as well as importers would like to take advantage of lower prices.

 C.    Seasonal behavior in Soybean Oil import in India

Table 1 presents the trend in the soydegum (crude soybean oil) import by India during an edible oil marketing season [November to October] for a period of last 5 years.

For the sake of more simplicity and clarity we have divided the 12 months of the whole marketing season in to 4 quarters. The first quarter (Nov-Jan), second (Feb-April), third (May-July) and forth (Aug-Oct).

Observations:

• The soydegum import has remained LOWEST during FIRST QUARTER i.e between November to January during the period under study (last 5 years)
• There is gradual increment in its imports in the subsequent quarters.
• There is no uniformity in the quarter of Highest Import as the pattern has remained different in all the 5 quarters.
• There is general increment in the imports figures on “year on year basis”.
• During 2013-14, a sudden and significant jump in the soybean oil import is seen (79%).

Inference:

This is clear from the above analysis that India imports lowest usually during first quarter of an edible oil marketing season because its own new soybean crops starts coming in the physical market during October month and the arrival pressure is highest during October, November and December. Thus crushing plants get better parity prices from its own soybean rather than imported crude soybean oil.

Thereafter a lot depends up on the local availability of the soybean, oil availability from other substitutes like groundnut oil, cottonseed oil and rice bran oil etc. The scarcity of the substitute oils spark the import of edible oil in the form of other edible oils mostly soybean oil or crude palm oil. This situation varies from year to year. Thus the pattern in the highest import quarter is not uniform in the years under study.

 D.   Import Price Behavior of Soybean Oil in India

Table 2 depicts the trend in the average import prices of the soy degum in various quarters of a marketing season during past 5 years.

Observations:

• The lowest import prices have been seen either in the last quarter or first quarter of the marketing year.
• There is no clear trend in the period of highest prices.
• During year 2010-11 and 2011-12, the import prices showed the increasing import price trend in the subsequent months.
• However from 2012-13 onwards the trend reversal is seen. i.e highest prices are seen the first quarter i.e between Nov to Jan period, later on prices have seen a declining trend in the far months.
• The last quarter of the marketing season i.e. Aug-Oct period has always seen higher prices as compared to the first quarter of the marketing season i.e. Nov-Jan during last 5 years.

Inference:

The soybean oil availability usually remain high during last quarter (Aug-Oct) due to ease in supply from US which is one of the biggest producers and supplier of the soybean oil in the world market.  Also during first quarter the soybean oil supply from the domestic production remain high in India and China.

Thus due to better supply in the world market during last quarter and high domestic availability in the world’s top most importers i.e. China and India during first quarter keeps international soybean oil prices under check. This is the major reason why the prices have made their lows during either last quarter or first quarter of the edible oil marketing season.

Again in the subsequent months, the supply pressure eases in the world market and many other factors come in to play which keep on changing thus no uniform pattern is found in the period of highest months.

E.   Current Demand & Supply Scenario in the World Soybean Oil Market

Table 3 highlights the current soybean oil market dynamics and gives the clear idea about the current and prospective demand and supply condition of the world market. (Data Source: USDA)

Observations:

For the edible oil marketing year 2015-16, the world production and supply of the soybean oil is likely to increase by 4 and 5 percent respectively as compared to 2014-15.

India’s soyoil production and supply is estimated to improve by 24 and 12 percent respectively for 2015-16.

Its consumption is also estimated to increase by around 12% during coming marketing season.

Major soyoil suppliers like Argentina, Brazil and United State are entering the new International edible oil marketing season beginning from October 2015 with significantly high beginning stocks falling in the range of 25, 25 and 19% respectively.

Inference:

On the basis of the above statistics, the supply situation seems quite comfortable in the world market.

Soy Oil Price Outlook for the current Quarter (Aug 15-Oct15) for Indian Market.

On the basis of the above fundamental analysis we will try to reach out at some conclusion regarding further price movement in the Indian soy oil market.

Let us again quickly SUMMARIZE the major points.

1. The sowing progress of kharif oilseeds including soybean in India is quite satisfactory --------- A bearish market sign

2. The current stock position at the Indian ports is also indicating that stocks are enough to meet the current demand. There is no major festive or marriage season demand during August/September months --------- A bearish market sign

3. Imports have remained generally on higher side during last quarters and least during first quarter of the marketing season  --------- A bearish market sign

4. Import prices have remained lowest during last quarter or first quarter during a marketing season --------- A bearish market sign

5. World market supply seems quite comfortable to meet the current and near future demand --------- A bearish market sign

Thus the above analysis indicate that market is likely to correct further during August to October period. The biofuel demand is also low due to weak international crude oil prices which will further put pressure on the soy oil market. The continued strength in the US dollar Index is also likely to pressurize the US commodities prices including soybean and soy oil in the near future resulting in to weak market sentiments. 

Technical Levels of NCDEX Soy oil Market

Soy Oil : NCDEX
Trend	Support 1	Support 2	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
Down	528	496	577	591

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