Recent Weather Fluctuations can trim India’s Rapeseed-Mustard Production and spark the prices during 2016

Recent fluctuation in the temperature in many parts of North and Central India has worried the farmers as well as traders as it has lasted some unfavorable impact on some of the standing Rabi crops.

Here we analyze the likely impact on Rapeseed-Mustard as this crop is vulnerable to these fluctuations.

A.          Impact of High Temperature:

Possibility of Yield Reduction:

Above normal temperature seen during first fortnight of the January proved harmful in those areas where early/timely sowing of the crop was done and the pods were in the filling stage. Due to sudden rise in temperature, the maturing process started early which may result into lesser yield and lesser oil content.

Major Rapeseed producing state “Rajasthan” falls under this category. Above normal by 4 to 6^oC over many parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Marathwada, Vidarbha, isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka during the week 31st December, 2015 to 06th January, 2016.

B.           Impact of Sudden Drop in Temperature:

Possibility of Aphid Attach:

Now for the last couple of days the average temperature has come down considerably and severe cold wave is prevailing in many parts of the country.

Sudden drop in temperature along with fog invite the aphid attack on the Mustard crop. Thus the plains of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana are more prone to the aphid attack. The possibility of aphid attack can’t be ruled out in these areas. The aphid suck the grain inside the pod. If timely chemical treatment is not done, then the yield may reduce substantially.

Possibility of damage to the crop due to frost also remains there during this period.

C.         Impact of Lesser Rains in North-Western India

Although Rapeseed - Mustard is a less water intensive crop but still slight rainfall or at least two light irrigations are required during the whole crop cycle.

In Majority of its growing states there is no rainfall till date. However in some parts of the MP some rains were seen during last week.

Map Source: IMD, India

D.          Impact of Hailstorm and heavy rains:

Any spell of excessive rains if seen during Feb/March localized or on vast part of a certain region may prove again dangerous to the standing crop as it may cause root rooting. Further, pod shattering may also result in to yield loss.

Further, hailstorm if seen in some patches may reduce the yield drastically of that particular area.

Now if light rains are seen during Feb/March, then it will be beneficial for the late sown varieties of the crop particularly in the Uttar Pradesh region.

However it is observed that during Feb/March almost every year Hailstorm and rain with high wind velocity is seen at isolated places in many parts of the country.

However, till date no such incidence is reported.

Production Assessment in the light of Recent Weather Fluctuations and Less Sown area:

It seems from the above analysis that there are chances of some yield reduction due to above mentioned reasons. The extent may vary from region to region. In certain areas the impact may be more visible while in other areas it may be negligible.

Rajasthan which is a major Rapeseed growing areas, the impact of sudden rise in temperature may be substantial on the yield. Further rains are also not seen in vast part of its growing regions. MP, Haryana, Western UP and Punjab may also witness some downfall in the yield.

As can be seen from the Table 1 that as on 12 Jan 2016, the sown area under Rapeseed and mustard is reported to be 62.76 lakh hectare which is also 3 lakh hectare less as compared to the last year.

Thus, the cumulative impact of less sown area and weather disturbance may reflect into lesser production this year. We expect that this year India may witness Mustard crop production somewhere near 52 lakh tons as compared to the last year’s figure i.e. 57.4 lakh tons which translates into 9% reduction in the production from the previous year.

Thus this year the production may remain lowest in the last six years. 

Price Outlook of Rapeseed-Mustard in Indian Market for 2016

This year the Rapeseed-Mustard (RMSeed) market is likely to remain bullish due to expectation of low crop production.

All the RMseed is consumed in domestic market and we are least affected of the international market sentiments in case of RMseed.  In the light of falling crude oil prices and high edible oil imports in the country, some short term decline may be seen in the prices but the overall long term outlook seems bullish.

The impact would be visible in the upcoming season. Usually the fresh crop arrival starts from late February in some parts of the country.

We expect that prices will start moving upward from February first week. On NCDEX the level of 3900-4000 can be a good buying level from long term point of view.