Short term marginal Recovery then again Fall expected in Indian Soy oil Market

During last 10 days Indian soy oil market has fallen by nearly 4%. (from 600 to 575 level) till date.

Let us review the market movement for next couple of days.
Two things seem still clear --------
1.  MEDIUM term Outlook is still BEARISH.
2.  SHORT term MARGINAL RECOVERY might be seen


Right Now Soy oil April Contract trades at 576.50 at 12.33 IST.

Technical levels are given below for MEDIUM and SHORT term.

India: NCDEX Soy oil April Contract

Medium Term Technical Levels

S1: 548    S2: 530                   R1: 600           R2: 619

Short Term Technical Levels

       S1: 555    S2: 550                   R1: 590           R2: 600

Fundamentals have yet not changed. Physical market demand is still not picking up and traders are in wait and watch mode.

Some technical bounce back may be seen in the market. Higher levels may result in to fresh selling by the hedgers and speculators.


NCDEX Soy oil April Contract: 
Medium Term Chart View

Short Term Chart View

Downtrend intensify in Oilseeds and Edible Oils Markets in India

Today is the first trading day of the current week starting 9 March and Indian oilseeds and edible oil (Soy oil and Crude Palm Oil) trades down both in physical as well as futures market.

On last friday on 6 March in my previous post, I predicted that edible oil market in India may witness steep fall in near future.

Today market has given early signs of it. Soy oil and Palm oil tried to go up but due to lack of physical market support, the market has started coming down.

In the physical market, the soy oil price are down by Rs. 5.60/10 kg in the Indore market which is the benchmark market for soy oil and soybean.

In Indian futures Market, the soybean, mustard seed, cpo and soy oil all are down in the range of .20 to .88% from previous close.

Discouraging oilmeal export data, poor domestic edible oil demand, weak international market sentiments do not allow Indian market to move up.

It seems that more weakness will be seen in near future.

More update will be given in the night near market close. (IST)

Be Ready for Sharp Movement in Soy oil in Indian Market in near future

With no change in the duty structure in the Union Budget  on edible oils, market will now start following fresh demand and supply fundamentals in Indian market.

International crude oil prices have also shown some improvement in short term.

In India, the central and northern parts which are the major oilseeds producing states, have received widespread rains which may delay the Rabi oilseeds crop arrivals a little bit delay particularly the Mustard seed crop.

With the start of summer season, demand is likely to pick up gradually.

Please note that for the past 7-8 days soy oil market moves in range of 10-12 rupees with no clear direction.

Right now Soy oil April Contract at NCDEX trades at   593.75.

As discussed earlier, there are signs of some improvement in the physical market demand. But there is still some skepticism over long term outlook in the light of amply world edible oil supplies.

This is the very reason why speculators are a little bit quite and waiting for some clear trend to emerge to make their fresh bet.

The chart pattern suggest that in the next couple of days some clarity must come in the market about the medium term.

The downside seems limited from current levels.

On Daily Chart of Soy oil April Contract at NCDEX following technical levels seems valid for next couple of days.

Support = 585  Resistance 1 = 596  Resistance 2 =604.
A closing above 597 will lead the market towards 604.

Soy oil remains volatile ahead of the Union Budget in Indian Market

Weak global cues of soy oil and crude oil keeps Indian market sentiments subdued in physical as well as futures markets.

Physical markets traders however opine that sooner or later prices are bound to improve with the start of summer in north India after Holi Festival.

They seems downside limited in India market.

Union Budget in India is also scheduled next week on 28th Feb.

Oilseeds industry in India is in favor of gradual increase in the import duty on the refined edible oil. This is to be seen what happens in Budget.

Thus market will remain more speculative and will  follow less demand and supply fundamentals. 

A cautious trade is advised amidst high volatility.

NCDEX Soy oil April Contract

India: Soy oil closes up by 1.87% during week ending 14 Feb 2015

Finally Indian soy oil market closed in green amidst improved volumes and positive global cues in soy oil and crude oil.

NCDEX Soy oil April Contract

Weekly Levels: ( 9-14 Feb 2015)
Open = 599.40
Low = 585.10
High = 605.90
Close = 605.90
% weekly change between Open and Close = (605.90-599.40)/599.40 = 1.08%

Thus on weekly basis a gain of 1% was seen in the Indian soy oil futures market.

Technically a BUY signal is almost confirmed by the moving averages. 5 day and 10 day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have changed direction towards upside and today's price has given closing well above the 5 and 10 days EMA. The 5 day EMA has crossed from below to 10 days EMA making a golden cross.

Thus, it seems that next week starting from 16th Feb, the market should trade positive. 

On daily basis chart, the SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE GIVEN BELOW

S1 =595    S2= 587    R1 = 612   R2 = 615