Recent fluctuation in the temperature in many parts of
North and Central India has worried the farmers as well as traders as it has
lasted some unfavorable impact on some of the standing Rabi crops.
Here we analyze the likely impact on Rapeseed-Mustard as
this crop is vulnerable to these fluctuations.
A.
Impact of
High Temperature:
Possibility of Yield Reduction:
Above normal temperature seen during first fortnight of
the January proved harmful in those areas where early/timely sowing of the crop
was done and the pods were in the filling stage. Due to sudden rise in temperature,
the maturing process started early which may result into lesser yield and
lesser oil content.
Major Rapeseed producing state “Rajasthan” falls under this
category. Above normal by 4 to 6oC over many parts of Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Marathwada, Vidarbha, isolated pockets of Punjab,
Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka
during the week 31st December, 2015 to 06th January, 2016.
B.
Impact of Sudden
Drop in Temperature:
Possibility of Aphid Attach:
Now for the last couple of days the average temperature
has come down considerably and severe cold wave is prevailing in many parts of
the country.
Sudden drop in temperature along with fog invite the aphid
attack on the Mustard crop. Thus the plains of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and
Haryana are more prone to the aphid attack. The possibility of aphid attack can’t
be ruled out in these areas. The aphid suck the grain inside the pod. If timely
chemical treatment is not done, then the yield may reduce substantially.
Possibility of damage to the crop due to frost also
remains there during this period.
C. Impact of
Lesser Rains in North-Western India
Although Rapeseed - Mustard is a less water intensive crop
but still slight rainfall or at least two light irrigations are required during
the whole crop cycle.
In Majority of its growing states there is no rainfall
till date. However in some parts of the MP some rains were seen during last
week.
Map Source: IMD, India
D. Impact of
Hailstorm and heavy rains:
Any spell of excessive rains if seen during Feb/March localized or on vast part of a certain region may prove again dangerous to the standing crop as it may cause root rooting. Further,
pod shattering may also result in to yield loss.
Further, hailstorm if seen in some patches may reduce the
yield drastically of that particular area.
Now if light rains are seen during Feb/March, then it will
be beneficial for the late sown varieties of the crop particularly in the Uttar
Pradesh region.
However it is observed that during Feb/March almost every
year Hailstorm and rain with high wind velocity is seen at isolated places in
many parts of the country.
However, till date no such incidence is reported.
Production Assessment in the
light of Recent Weather Fluctuations and Less Sown area:
It seems from the above analysis that there are chances of
some yield reduction due to above mentioned reasons. The extent may vary from
region to region. In certain areas the impact may be more visible while in
other areas it may be negligible.
Rajasthan which is a major Rapeseed growing areas, the
impact of sudden rise in temperature may be substantial on the yield. Further rains
are also not seen in vast part of its growing regions. MP, Haryana, Western UP
and Punjab may also witness some downfall in the yield.
As can be seen from the Table 1 that as on 12 Jan 2016, the
sown area under Rapeseed and mustard is reported to be 62.76 lakh hectare which
is also 3 lakh hectare less as compared to the last year.
Thus, the cumulative impact
of less sown area and weather disturbance may reflect into lesser production
this year. We expect that this year India may witness Mustard crop production somewhere
near 52 lakh tons as compared to the last year’s figure i.e. 57.4 lakh tons which
translates into 9% reduction in the production from the previous year.
Thus this year the
production may remain lowest in the last six years.
Price Outlook of Rapeseed-Mustard in Indian Market for 2016
This year the Rapeseed-Mustard
(RMSeed) market is likely to remain bullish due to expectation of low crop production.
All the RMseed is consumed
in domestic market and we are least affected of the international market
sentiments in case of RMseed. In the
light of falling crude oil prices and high edible oil imports in the country,
some short term decline may be seen in the prices but the overall long term
outlook seems bullish.
The impact would be visible in
the upcoming season. Usually the fresh crop arrival starts from late February
in some parts of the country.
We expect that prices will
start moving upward from February first week. On NCDEX the level of 3900-4000
can be a good buying level from long term point of view.
